By
Liling Magtolis Briones
From Business Mirror
September 3, 2007
Last
Friday, August 31, major newspapers headlined the “surprising”
news about the 7.5-percent growth in GDP for the second quarter
of 2007.
Pictures of a euphoric GMA were plastered all over the front pages,
accompanied by colorful charts. The announcement was also covered
by radio and television.
Just as quickly, academics, think tanks, analysts and civil society
organizations urged that the GDP numbers be carefully analyzed
in terms of sustainability and equity considerations, particularly
their impact on poverty.
Experts were one in cautioning that growth in one quarter may
not be sustainable for the rest of the year. This is because 2007
is an election year. The second quarter was characterized by numerous
infrastructure projects, increased consumer spending from massive
releases of public funds and manufacture of tons of election materials,
as well as heavy spending for advertising and other services.
The highest levels of tax collection are usually posted during
the second quarter. This is when payment of personal income taxes
and other revenues are due. Revenue collection tends to slow down
after the second quarter even as expenditures inexorably rise
since payables, bills and debt payments pile up toward the end
of the year.
Consumer spending was further fueled by high levels of remittances
from our modern day heroes—the OFWs. Hoity-toity columnists
may look down on them but the contributions of their sosyal lifestyles
to the GDP can’t match the billions of dollars ($12.8 billion
last year) OFWs send to the mother country.
Is GDP the sole indicator of the state of the economy?
Of course, the GDP is very useful in measuring the growth of our
economy. Since it is used by most countries, it helps us assess
our standing in the regional and global community of countries.
For a very long time, countries were ranked and classified according
to their GDPs.
Even the most rabid defenders of the GNP and the GDP recognize
that other indicators help in providing a more comprehensive picture
of the state of country economies.
Income inequality is a persistent concern in many developing countries,
including the Philippines. The Gini Coefficient, which measures
inequality has been used even when I was a graduate student eons
ago.
A country can have spectacular levels of growth but have severe
problems of inequality. Growth can be very impressive but if it
is concentrated in one or two sectors, or if only a teeny-weeny
percent of the population benefit from GDP growth, then these
become meaningless.
For decades, the Gini Coefficient of the Philippines has been
consistently high, which means inequality is high.
It must be borne in mind that the GDP is an aggregate figure.
Social Watch Philippines has been saying for years that high levels
of income and social development are largely concentrated in urban
areas and three regions while 14 regions languish.
The official figures are all there.
Official reports and figures show that 39 out of 78 provinces
may not meet the Milennium Development Goals. Poverty levels are
highest and incomes are lowest in Northern Luzon, parts of the
Visayas and the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.
Infant and maternal mortality rates in the Philippines are among
the highest in Asia. The Education Development Index (EDI) in
Sulu is lower than Nepal, Ghana, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Malawi,
Bangladesh, Lao PDR and Cambodia.
The United Nations Development Program has formulated the Human
Development Index, which supplements income data with health and
education indicators.
Social Watch Philippines has developed the Quality of Life Index,
which considers outcomes in terms of births attended by qualified
health personnel, survival of babies up to five years and primary
education. These indices tell a vastly different story
The sky is not falling?
In the Kingdom of Grim Fairy Tales, the little red hen is happily
clucking, crowing and cackling, “The sky is not falling!
The sky is not falling!” The rest of the animals are too
busy struggling to survive to hear or to listen to her.
In the South, they are frantically running away from tanks, dodging
bullets while the sky is raining bombs. They can’t hear
her loud voice; the sounds of gunfire are much louder.
Millions of animals are desperately looking for food even as a
few crocodiles are gorging themselves. Others are seeking shelter
from darkened skies pouring rain and triggering floods. Acids,
chemicals and toxins are falling from the heavily polluted sky.
The sky is not falling?
(Ms.
Leonor Briones is a former National Treasurer of the Philippines.
She is currently teaching public administration at the University
of the Philippines. She also writes a column for the Business
Mirror)
Other
Feature articles:
-Of
Command and commandeered votes
-Coming
soon: young bureaucracy?
-What
to do the morning after the night before
-Out
Where the Country Begins
-Questions
Begging for Answers
-Attaining
the MDGS: Are We Really On Track?
